While the various Libyan parties were occupied with facing the Corona pandemic, and following forces of the Libyan Government of National Accord taking control over important areas that were under Haftar’s control, Khaleefa Haftar announced on April 27, 2020 the dropping of the Skhirat Agreement. He also announced his appointment as sole ruler of Libya with a popular mandate. This came as a surprise for the various parties – both opposition and supportive.

The aim of the Skhirat Agreement, signed on December 17, 2015, was that of forming a national unity government in Libya to end the war that has ripped through the country since 2014. Political power in the country was divided between the parliament elected in 2014 (legislative authority) and the presidential council of the National Accord Government (executive authority), along with the Supreme State Council (consultative).

By declaring the dropping of the Skhirat Agreement, Haftar has bypassed all political institutions in the country that were established under that agreement, which could lead to the country returning to the scenario of the civil war that it previously fled.

To assess the situation, the motives behind Hafter’s announcement of dropping the Skhirat Agreement are examined, and the implications of overriding supportive parties at international and regional levels, and how this will affect the security and military future of Libya will be discussed.

Escalation contexts

Although some regional and international parties have supported Haftar since the start of his campaign to invade the capital, Tripoli, on April 4, 2019, he has been unable to make any real progress on ground. The situation has become more complicated ahead of him after the signing of a security agreement by the Libyan government with Turkey on December 7,  2019 as the government took advantage of Turkish support to achieve field changes on ground, which prompted Haftar to announce his zero equation, in an attempt to resolve the battle militarily and not politically.

According to the researcher in North Africa affairs, Nebahat Tanriverdi Yasar, Haftar’s announcement of dropping the Skhirat Agreement comes in response to the current field developments in Libya, which reflect the failure of his policies on ground. This comes as Libya has witnessed important developments during the past weeks, as the National Accord Government intensified Its operations on the Al-Wattia air base (140 km southwest of Tripoli) which is controlled by Haftar’s militia. This prompted a force from the city of Zintan (170 km southwest of Tripoli) to withdraw, and stop its support for Haftar.

In addition to the changes imposed by external interventions, Haftar’s Front has suffered major cracks following the high death toll amongst the tribes loyal to him, after Turkish support entered the equation, and with no results achieved on ground.

During the last week of April, Libya witnessed protests in the city of Sirte (450 km east of Tripoli) by some groups supporting Seif al-Islam al-Qadhafi, son of the ousted leader Muammar al-Gaddafi. The growing number of these protests is a real concern for Haftar, who, by appointing himself in this way, seeks to reinforce his position against these voices, which began by withdrawing and suspending the support it was providing to him.

The defection of the Zintan militias (the pro-Haftar faction), which have a strategic force geographically, and the change in its position and support for the National Accord Government, is a severe blow to Haftar’s forces. This fraction means that some areas in western Libya will become dependent on the Accord Government, and this will place Haftar’s forces in a difficult situation, especially on the Tarhuna front (90 km southeast of Tripoli).

On the political side, Haftar’s Front is witnessing a real rift after the heightening tensions between Aqeela Saleh, Speaker of the House of Representatives in Tobruk (East) and Haftar. Haftar’s announcement came two hours after Aqeela’s speech in which she proposed a new political initiative in an attempt to save the country.

Saleh belongs to el-Obaidat tribe, one of the largest tribes in eastern Libya in numbers and in power; it controls most parts of the east from the city of Shahat to the city of Tobruk. In general, the tribes of the eastern region formed a strong support for Haftar during the previous period. Indeed, they are a geographically coherent bloc through their central position in the regions of eastern Libya and its second capital, the city of Benghazi, in addition to their location in the oil crescent. However, friction began between Haftar and some of these tribes since the Battle of Tripoli where officers arrived from al-Furjan tribe, the cousins ​​of Khalifa Haftar, and officers from the Gaddafi regime gained high and sensitive positions in the military establishment that Haftar was trying to establish. Signs of splits and rifts began among the ranks of Haftar’s fighters, especially after controlling Benghazi and establishing battalions directly under him, led by his two sons Khaled and Saddam, and his brother-in-law, Ayoub al-Ferjani.

Hafter exploited this rift to get rid of his strongest rivals within the tribes of the eastern region, among the tribes of Al-Awaqeer and Al-Obaidat, which increased the severity of the fraction in Haftar’s internal front. Following Haftar’s announcement of appointing himself as a ruler for Libya, Al-Obaidat tribe, which Saleh belongs to, announced its full support for the Ministers council, indicating its lack of support for the mandate initiative. In addition, the city of Sebha, the capital of the south of Libya and the third largest city in Libya, announced its defection from Haftar, joining the regionally and internationally recognised Accord Government. All this internal rift would have an inevitable impact on the operations of Haftar’s forces on ground.

Motives for the declaration of dropping Skhirat agreement

By Haftar’s announcement to drop of the Skhirat Agreement, he bypassed all the agreements sponsored by regional and international powers. The declaration was not only shocking to the parties opposing him, but even to the forces and parties loyal to him internally and externally. Despite the seriousness of this step, as it may lead to Haftar’s isolation internally and externally and to the scenario of the civil war that Libya tried to avoid for years, he insisted on it in a final attempt to impose a fait accompli, even if it was applied to eastern Libya alone.

The reason for this, as reports indicate, is the political and military challenges posed by the entry of the Turkish element into the Libyan equation. The Accord gained power, which created weakness and rift in the political and military front of Haftar and threatened his ability to continue through popular loyalty supporting him. On an external level, the Corona pandemic affected the parties supporting it regionally and internationally. On the one hand, Saudi Arabia suffered from the sharp decline in oil prices, and Egypt and the UAE, especially Abu Dhabi, faced an acute economic crisis due to the outbreak of the virus and its repercussions. Italy and France were greatly affected by this pandemic, particularly the economic impact, which would inevitably be reflected in the level of economic support that Haftar would potentially receive from these parties, especially since he has not achieved actual results on ground.

International and regional reactions

Considering Hafter’s declaration was sudden, all parties loyal to him, except for the UAE, agreed to reject this unilateral declaration. They considered that it represented a real threat to the success of any political process in Libya, as it might eventually lead to its division, which is the most dangerous scenario that internal parties were trying to avoid.

The United Nations refused to accept the unilateral Haftar Declaration, and a spokesman for the UN Secretary-General, Stephani Dujarric, said that, “the Skhirat Agreement is the only international framework for recognising the Libyan situation”.  He indicated that the National Accord Government is the internationally recognised government, and confirmed that any political change in Libya must be by democratic and by non-military means.

The European Parliament also condemned Hafter’s announcement to drop the Skhirat Agreement, and considered it unilateral and unacceptable.

The United States declared its regret for Haftar’s unilateral move, and stressed that any upcoming political solution must include the various parties, including Haftar.

Meanwhile, Italy said that it supported internationally recognised legitimacy, and that any decision regarding the future of Libya must be taken in a consensual manner. France emphasised that the conflict in Libya cannot be resolved through individual decisions, but rather, through a dialogue supported by the UN.

In Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov confirmed on April 28 that his country did not support Haftar’s statements in which he declared that he alone will decide how the Libyans will live, just as previously Moscow did not support President Al-Sarraj’s refusal to dialogue with Haftar.

The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, had previously said that the only possible settlement in Libya would be through political and diplomatic means, and with the participation of all conflicted parties.

In Ankara, Omar Glick, a spokesman for Turkey’s Justice and Development ruling party, said that the retired Libyan general attempted to carry out a coup, stressing that his country continues to support the legitimate government in Libya, which is the internationally recognised accord government.

The position of the Arab League was more unclear and colluding with Haftar. In a statement on Wednesday, April 29, 2020 the Arab league expressed its deep concern at the political and military escalation in Libya, calling upon all parties in the conflict to adhere to the political path sponsored by the UN and the international community. It also affirmed, “Refusing to resort to the military option, and committing to political dialogue as the only way to settle the Libyan crisis”.

A spokesman for the Egyptian Foreign Ministry affirmed his country’s adherence to the political solution, searching for a political settlement to the conflict in Libya. This is despite the existence of differences between the Libyan parties on how to implement this, as he put it.

Domestically, the Libyan Supreme Council of State, and the Presidential Council of the Accord Government, considered Haftar’s declaration a “coup against the democratic process” in the country.

The repercussions of Haftar’s declaration on Libya’s political situation

This is the fifth coup by the retired Major General Haftar. He had previously announced more than one attempted coup against the ruling authorities in his country, even during Qaddafi’s time. However, the difference between his old coups and this new coup initiated by the dropping of the Skhirat Agreement, is that this time he pushed himself to political isolation, especially since he took this step without consulting any of his allies, neither internal nor external.

Politically, Haftar’s decision will weaken the ability of the parliament that supports him internally, and the support of regional and international powers, especially Western, may be shaken, as he has demonstrated his lack of commitment to the decisions issued by these bodies, which causes embarrassment at an international level.

As for the military and security level, which is the most dangerous, international reports indicate that Libya has entered an actual division stage following Haftar’s declaration. He manages the affairs of the eastern part of Libya with a popular mandate, but he did not obtain the support of Tripoli, nor did he resolve his position inside the Libyan arena with the conflicted parties who are politically and militarily influential. This means the continuation of the state of conflict and fighting that may lead to an ongoing civil war.

Conclusion

By declaring the dropping of the Skhirat Agreement, Haftar sought to reinforce his military position on ground through imposing a fait accompli. However, he only suffered more defeats on a political and military level.

On a military level, the Accord Government managed to move towards the Al-Watiyah base after recovering the cities of the western coast. It gained control of all of Haftar’s locations in the west of the country except for Al-Qaeda and Tarhuna. It managed through its recent operations following Haftar’s declaration to control areas close to the city Tarhuna.

On the political level, even though parties loyal to Haftar imposed him on the Libyan scene by force by treating him as an active player on a regional level, Haftar did not respect any of the international resolution. This weakens him politically at both a regional and international level.

The power is currently on the side of the Libyan Accord Government due to the Turkish support and as a result of the fraction of Haftar’s internal front. With the continued support of some parties towards Haftar, the Libyan conflict will continue. However, due to the cracks in Haftar’s internal front and his repeated defeats, it doesn’t seem that his declaration to end the Skhirat agreement will cancel the political institutions as he wished. But this may affect Libya’s security, especially as Haftar is going through with his plan of possessing even just a part of Libya, which may eventually lead to the division of Libya in the long run.