On November 3, 2020, the most important elections in the world will take place, where Americans will elect the President of the United States of America. Whilst record numbers registered to participate early in the voting processes across the states, electoral campaigns for the two candidates – Republican President Donald Trump and his Democratic rival, Joe Biden – intensified ahead of the elections to gain votes.
The Democrats seek to use President Trump’s failure to manage the Coronavirus pandemic to win the stakes in the presidential race, as well as the deterioration of the economy resulting in hundreds of thousands of Americans losing their jobs, and a rising number seeking unemployment benefits. Meanwhile, the Republicans led by Trump are seeking to ensure their victory – from their point of view – by focussing on Biden’s weak electoral program and his feeble ability to be a satisfactory alternative to the US voter.
The candidates’ presidential campaigns did not raise any US foreign policy issues as was previously the case. Rather, the focus was on the US economy and other crises that accompanied it in light of the Coronavirus pandemic. However, this does not mean that the international sphere, including the Arab region and its neighbourhood, will not be affected by the election results. Indeed, the results of these elections are expected to change the course of events in this region, as well as influencing the position the US holds and its leadership in the world.
The question remains: Which of the two candidates will win the presidency of the United States of America? How will each of them deal with foreign policy issues, especially with regards to the Arab region and its neighbourhood, and particularly those related to Iran’s nuclear file, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the Turkey-US bilateral relations, and US’ support for allied regimes in the region.
US election system
US elections are held every four years with a unique electoral system, in which only two parties dominate the election system – the Republican Party (the Conservatives) and the Democratic Party (Liberals or Leftists). This system is also characterised by the fact that American voters do not elect the president directly, but rather the members of the ‘electoral college’, who in turn choose the president of the US.
The total number of votes in the electoral college is 538, and the number of electoral college delegates differs between states according to their population. For example, California, the most populous state in the US, has 55 representatives, while North Carolina only has three.
The electoral system for all states, with the exception of two states, is based on the principle of ‘the winner-takes-all’, meaning that the candidate who gets the majority of votes in a particular state gets the votes of all the state’s delegates entirely. In order for the presidential candidate to win the presidency, they must win at least 270 electoral votes.
It is therefore possible for the presidential candidate to win the elections by delegates’ votes without winning the national vote. This happened with Hillary Clinton in 2016 where Clinton surpassed Trump by about 3 million votes in the national vote, but lost to him in the electoral college with 227 votes.
Strengths and weaknesses of the candidates
Opinion polls conducted by several American research channels and centres are a good indication of the popularity of the presidential candidate in all US states. These polls showed an advance in Joe Biden’s popularity ahead of Donald Trump.
Polling data by RealClearPolitics showed an increase in Biden’s popularity in a number of states that Trump had won by a slight margin in the 2016 elections, such as Florida and Michigan. These polls also showed a decline in Trump’s popularity in states that Trump had a majority in in the 2016 elections, such as Texas and Ohio.
NBC News / Wall Street Journal showed that after the first debate between Trump and Biden, held on September 29, which was described as the most anarchic in recent US history, showed Biden advance in popularity by a large margin, with 53% in his favour, whilst his rival got 39%.
Despite these estimates of Biden’s victory, Trump still has certain advantages that may persuade US voters to nominate him. Biden did not present any electoral plans to solve current domestic problems, but rather, he directed accusations to the Trump administration about the Corona outbreak, which resulted in huge rates of infection and death in the US. He also criticised how Trump dealt with the recent protests that erupted after the killing of African-American citizen George Floyd, as well as other issues.
Trump has a great ability to use a passionate populist discourse influencing the American citizen through a combination of national pride, making claims of there being conspiracies to fight the American model, and his assertion of being victorious and overcoming these threats. Quite the opposite, Biden is considered part of the traditional American political elite, who proposes solutions to fundamental issues based on abstract principles. This may not lead the American voters, who are looking for policies that touch their reality, to elect him.
Furthermore, Trump showed many economic achievements in reducing unemployment rates, especially among African-American citizens and Latinos, and had it not been for the economic repercussions of the Coronavirus pandemic, the election debate would have been likely in Trump’s favour.
Implications of the election results on foreign policy towards the Arab region and its neighbourhood
Biden or Trump’s victory is of great concern to the disjointed and disputing countries of the region, but some political elites in the region, especially Israeli leaders and those of the oil-rich Arab countries, see that the two candidates represent two very different paths for them.
Ironically, most of the competing countries in the region – Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and the UAE, with the exception of Iran, would prefer Donald Trump to win a second round of the US presidency.
The Iranian issue is the only regional issue that showed sharp contradictions between the candidates’ programs, especially the US position on the 2015 multilateral Iranian nuclear deal. Meanwhile, issues concerning the Arab region and its neighbourhood were unevenly present in both candidates’ programs. Whilst the Palestinian issue maintained its presence in the programs, the respective programs of both candidates focused on domestic issues, particularly economy and health.
Predicting the possibility of a radical change in policy towards Iran in the event that any of the candidates wins seems poor. However, it is expected that the approach and mechanism of each candidate will vary. Current US policy continues to limit Iranian interference in the region, trying to stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions; and by adopting a new set of sanctions imposed on Iran should Trump win a second term. While Biden may adopt a more neutral policy, he may seek to renew the nuclear agreement or reach a stronger agreement that includes limiting Iran’s nuclear activities.
Iran is likely to be the only winner in the Arab region and its neighbourhood if Biden wins the US elections. Indeed, most of the Iranian government, elites and the Iranian population prefer Biden to win the presidency because that could guarantee the resumption of nuclear activities and the easing of sanctions imposed on them, according to the Washington Post. Oil analysts argue that if Biden replaces Trump, Iran will start exporting up to 2 million barrels of oil per day.
Israeli security is one of the most important issues raised prior to the elections in order to gain the support of the Jewish lobby influencing US politics, as well as the votes of the evangelicals. Trump has proven that he is the most biased and accomplished US president in this file. During his tenure, the US government decided to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in May 2018; recognised Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights in March 2019; and oversaw normalisation agreements between Israel and a number of Arab countries, namely UAE, Bahrain and Sudan.
Thus, in the event that the Republicans win, it is expected that normalisation agreements will increase between Israel and a number of Arab and Islamic countries. This may also lead to international recognition of the so-called ‘deal of the century’. In the event that Biden wins, he is expected to seek to restore balance to US relations with Palestine and Israel, including reopening communications with Palestinians in East Jerusalem; resuming the aid program that the Trump administration suspended in 2019; but without retreating from unilateral decisions taken by the US during the Trump administration.
In addition to the most important issues of the Arab region and its neighbourhood which have been largely dealt with by the candidates’ campaigns, let’s address the most prominent features of US foreign policy towards the issues of the Arab region and its neighbourhood in the event of either of the candidates winning the 2020 elections.
US foreign policy under Biden’s presidency
During his election campaign, Biden consistently sought to show a balance between supporting Israel and Palestine. Biden always stressed that the US is committed to ensuring the safety of Israel and protecting its existence as a Jewish state, as well as praising the normalisation agreements between Israel and some Arab countries, describing them as “positive steps”, calling on Arab countries to take more normalisation steps. Biden also reiterated the necessity of returning US financial and humanitarian aid to the Palestinian Authority; demanded that Israel stop settlement expansion in the West Bank; and stressed that the best way to solve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is through political settlement and negotiations. Therefore, it is difficult to determine which foreign policies Biden and his government will embrace on the Palestinian issue.
If Joe Biden wins the 2020 elections, there is a high possibility that the US will return to its leading role in managing regional crises, as well as the return of US diplomacy to enhance efforts to find solutions in regional conflicts that affect US interests, especially in Syria, Libya and Yemen.
Biden will likely respond to Congress’s call to end US military support for the Saudi-led war in Yemen, and he will also seek to find a solution to the conflict in Syria and Libya by activating US diplomatic channels.
The countries in the region that support Trump’s rule – especially Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt – may resort to dealing with a democratic US administration again in the event that Biden wins. This means that US arms sales to these countries may not take place as quickly as before, and issues related to human rights in the region may be dealt with in a more assertive manner. More importantly, the Gulf states may find themselves in danger of escalating Iranian activities in the region if the Democrats side with Iran.
Likewise, if Biden wins, US-Turkish relations may clash in managing the region’s files, especially since Biden has repeatedly criticised the US government’s relations with Ankara; demanded more pressure on Turkey to reduce tension with Greece; and called for excluding Ankara from any diplomatic efforts in the ongoing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Thus, it is likely that the relationship between Ankara and Washington will worsen at a political level should Biden win, which will have an economic impact on Turkey.
US policy under a new term for Trump
Tel Aviv supports a second term for Trump, as this ensures the continued support of the US for Israel’s policies in the region, as well as plans for settlement expansion on a large scale in Palestinian lands.
The Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, also hope that the Trump administration will continue for a new term. This is to ensure the greatest pressure is applied to reduce Iran’s dangers in the countries of the region. Furthermore, a Trump administration will allow for the continued lack of legal accountability for any human rights crimes committed by these countries against their peoples and against the countries of the region.
There is no doubt that Turkey favours the Trump administration over Biden as this will enable it to move in the region in a manner that guarantees its interests without any US objections. This is due to the friendly relationship between Turkish President Erdogan and his counterpart Trump, who allowed for US policies to align with Turkey’s political positions regarding the withdrawal of US forces from northern Iraq and Syria, as well as the US position on the recent Libyan crisis.
Conclusion
Trump’s victory for a second term means that he will continue his policies based primarily on national security, and secondly on protecting the few interests of the US, including breaking out of a number of international agreements and resolving international political issues independently. But if Biden wins, the traditional left-wing approach will dominate the foreign policy scene of the US, which means compliance with international treaties and agreements, and freedom from the isolation policy that Trump pursued in his mandate.
In general, the foreign policy of the US cannot be completely different from its predecessors, because national and economic interests will remain the primary focus of the US. As a result of the continuation of the Corona pandemic, it is expected that the new president’s focus will be on addressing the effects of the pandemic inside the US, in addition to confronting China’s economic ambitions and its efforts to rise to first in rank in global power. US intervention in issues of the Arab region and its neighbourhood may thus be very limited.
Based on opinion polls that favoured Biden’s victory, with the possibility of Trump’s victory being repeated as had happened with opinion polls that indicated Hillary Clinton’s victory, it is expected that the foreign policy efforts of the US over the next stage will focus on managing the Iranian nuclear file, as well as the Palestinian conflict with the Israeli occupation. The US may seek to restore its efforts, in coordination with international parties, to reach a new agreement with Iran. It is also possible that the US State Department will renew its role in the peace agreements between the Arabs and Israel in a way that guarantees its mediating role between the parties to the conflict. But in the event that Trump manages to win a second term, it is possible that US foreign policy will continue in the same diplomatic way towards the issues of the region as it has been.
